The weakest demand is difficult to change. The coa

2022-08-07
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It is difficult to change the weak demand. The coal price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The trend is obvious.

the weak demand is difficult to change. The coal price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

China Construction Machinery Information

. Inventories rose by 2% to 7.5 million tons, a steady increase. The inventory of the six power plants decreased by 0.5%, the inventory days decreased by 1~21 days, and the daily consumption increased by 2.8% to 660000 tons. Without the flagship graphene company, the daily consumption in July was 17% lower than that in the same period last year, which was the largest monthly year-on-year decline this year, and the daily consumption was significantly lower. Despite the hottest weather of the year and the continuous decline of coal price, the obvious low daily consumption, the weak rebound of coastal freight index, the sluggish enthusiasm to pull coal, the delayed port and power plant inventory, and the declining international coal price have all exerted pressure on the future power coal price, and the downward trend has not stopped. Due to the poor performance of fundamentals in the near future, the decline of various coal types has not stopped, or even expanded. There is still room for decline in the follow-up. The trend that coal prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise is obvious

influenced by many factors such as economic growth slowdown and coal overcapacity, it is difficult to be optimistic about the development situation of the coal industry in the second half of the year. The weak demand for coal is difficult to change in the short term. The domestic coal output will continue to be suppressed, the coal import volume will generally tend to be stable, the coal price will continue to remain weak, the industry's profitability will face further decline, and the decline in the industry's fixed asset investment may further expand

it is difficult to change the weak demand situation

economic growth will continue to face downward pressure in the second half of the year. On the one hand, the growth of fixed asset investment may further slow down, especially due to the increasing uncertainty of the real estate market, real estate development investment may be greatly restricted; On the other hand, due to the rising domestic labor costs and the increasingly complex world economic situation, import and export growth will still face considerable pressure. The economic downturn will undoubtedly continue to put pressure on the demand for energy and raw materials. In addition, for the sake of environmental protection, various coal restriction measures have been, are being or will be introduced in various regions, and the coal demand will be affected to varying degrees

by industry, it is expected that the demand for coal for power generation and heating will grow sluggishly. The slowdown in economic growth has led to a slowdown in the growth of the whole society, especially the industrial power demand, which is the main reason for the sluggish growth of coal for power generation. In addition, the rapid growth of hydropower output, the increasing elimination of backward production capacity and the decline of unit energy consumption will also restrict the growth of coal demand for power generation. In the winter heating season, the intensity of gas injection instead of coal in major cities will inhibit the growth of the total amount of heating coal

the weak demand for coal in the iron and steel industry is difficult to change. Due to the slowdown in the growth of fixed asset investment, especially the increasing uncertainty in the real estate market, it is expected that the steel demand situation will not be fundamentally improved in the second half of the year, the pig iron and coke production will not be significantly increased, and the coal demand in the steel industry will not be able to change the weak trend

the growth of coal demand in the cement industry will also slow down. On the one hand, cement is an important building material product. If the growth of real estate investment falls sharply, the production and sales of cement and the demand for coal in the cement industry will inevitably be further affected. On the other hand, with the increase of energy conservation and emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity, the unit energy consumption of cement products will continue to fall, and the demand for coal will also be affected

the demand for coal in the chemical fertilizer industry continues to be weak, and the coal for chemical industry maintains a growth momentum. It is difficult for nitrogen fertilizer production to increase significantly, which determines that the demand for coal for chemical fertilizer will continue to be weak. As a number of new large-scale synthetic ammonia urea plants using lignite and bituminous coal as raw materials are put into operation one after another, independent, small and medium-sized nitrogenous fertilizer enterprises using anthracite lump coal as raw material and lacking raw material advantages will encounter a survival crisis, and the demand for anthracite lump coal may be relatively reduced. The demand for bituminous coal and lignite for chemical fertilizer will increase, but the total amount of coal for chemical fertilizer is difficult to increase significantly. In addition, with the continuous operation of coal to methanol, coal to olefin and coal to natural gas plants, the demand for coal for new coal chemical industry will continue to maintain an appropriate growth

the output will continue to be suppressed

at present, the domestic coal production capacity is abundant, and the new production capacity is increasing gradually. If the demand increases, the growth of coal production is based. However, considering that the coal demand is difficult to change the weak trend, the coal output will continue to be suppressed in the second half of the year, and the national raw coal output will be basically flat year-on-year

from the perspective of sub regions, there will be great differences in the release degree of coal production capacity in different regions. For most of the coal transfer in areas in the Middle East, due to the fact that the coal supply in the region can not be self satisfied, and the logistics cost of self-produced coal is relatively low, it has a relative competitive advantage compared with the coal transferred in from outside the region, so the coal production capacity should be fully released. For the main coal producing areas, especially the three provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, the release of coal production capacity will be significantly restricted. The consumption of synthetic fiber is expected to increase by 3.6% every year by using plastics to make it reach the design limit

in recent years, the coal industry has been enthusiastic about investment. The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the above regions, and there are still new capacity releases. It can be said that the domestic excess coal capacity is also mainly concentrated in these regions. With the overall weak demand for coal and the sluggish growth of export demand, the coal production in these areas will inevitably be suppressed and the release of coal production capacity will be limited. It is worth noting that in the case of overall limited release of coal production capacity, the competition among Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi provinces and among major enterprises in the region will also be more intense

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